Do not think about, write about or deal with human behavior without determining the effects of incentives. It’s not their money, of course they’ll waste it.
Wherein we see that, in spite of carbon trading failing everywhere, some jurisdictions are starting it.
Wynne’s new math
Premier says crash of the carbon market in Quebec and California could lower Ontario’s revenue from cap-and-trade
Toronto Sun5 Jun 2016LORRIE GOLDSTEIN WYNNE email@example.com @sunlorrie
Premier Kathleen Wynne now says she may have to lower her estimate that cap and-trade will raise $1.9 billion in new revenue for her government next year, in light of the crash of the carbon trading markets in Quebec and California.
People are just not that interested in entering into shared fantasy.
Wynne has already committed $1.2 billion from anticipated cap-and trade profits to green energy schemes, even though the province won’t receive any money until it starts auctioning off carbon credits to industry nine months from now, in March, 2017.
Last month, California and Quebec — which Ontario is partnering with in cap and-trade — received only 11% of about $700 million they expected to raise from auctioning off carbon credits to industrial greenhouse gas emitters.
If there is no Global Warming how can there be greenhouse gases, one may ask again and again?
That could negatively impact on climate change initiatives such as California’s plan to build a high-speed train, since it relies on cap and-trade revenue for funding.
Wynne, commenting on the crash of the carbon market, told CBC Radio’s Chris Hall on The House: “It’s a market. We know that there will be highs and lows … It was this round that it was not as good. We just don’t know what the market will be. That ($1.9 billion) is our projection. If we have to revise the projection then we will.”
This was a substantially different response than Wynne gave last month when she was asked about the crash of the California carbon market.
At that time, she sloughed it off, saying: “California is ahead of us, and we’ve got some catching up to do. We’re pushing ahead, and there’s a lot of innovation that I know can happen in Ontario, and that’s what our cap-and-trade program is going to be about.”
The least useful guiding notion in the world is “California is ahead of us.”
But lower than anticipated revenues from cap-and-trade could undermine Ontario’s climate change strategy, or force the government to raise taxes or go deeper into debt to meet green energy commitments it has already made, and others it plans to announce in the near future.
Last month, Wynne committed $900 million over four years from future “cap and-trade proceeds” to make apartment buildings more energy efficient.
Last year she created a $325 million “Green Investment Fund”, calling it “a down payment on the province’s cap-and-trade program.”
Wynne acknowledged her controversial climate change strategy may be one reason her party is trailing the Patrick Brown-led Progressive Conservatives by 40% to 30% in the latest Forum poll. It predicted if an election was held today, the PCs would win a narrow majority government.
A Forum poll in March put Wynne’s approval rating with voters at just 20%.
Asked about her low polling numbers, Wynne told CBC Radio: “I think we’re doing some hard things. We’ve made some decisions that are challenging. It is a real challenge to tackle climate change. There are going to be voices, you know, from people who don’t believe we should be tackling climate change, and those voice(sic) are strong and loud.”
We have elected people who believe in illusions which are immune to disconfirmation.
“Look Maude, the problem’s over there, disguised as an empty space.”
Government Job or Respect–Which’ll It Be?
Cheerio and ttfn,
Grant Coulson, Ph.D.
Author, “Power Teaching: How to Find Someone to Teach Your Child when the Education System has Failed.”
Cui Bono–Cherchez les Contingencies