The experts on Climate Change are always telling us about the difference between weather–what we see and, climate–the long terms trends of weather. Translation–weather is what we see and climate is what they use to terrify us with predictions of coming terror.
from the book: Shadow Dancing on the Grave of Hope:
WITH CERTAINTY ABOUT EVERYTHING AND FACTS ABOUT NOTHING
The sovereign [politician] is completely discharged from a duty, in the attempting to perform which he must always be exposed to innumerable delusions, and for the proper performance of which no human wisdom or knowledge could ever be sufficient: the duty of superintending the industry of private people." Adam Smith. (The Wealth of Nations, vol. II, bk. IV, ch. 9.)
Some of the conclusions that the social sciences must reach are, a)There are things beyond the reach of the social sciences, b)most of what is done is myth and nonsense, c) effective programs are rarely used, d) successful programs require a lot of hard work.
The situation will not change by depending on “…the traditional practice of blaming the actors for the action.” No situation will change until the contingencies change so that failure is punished and success reinforced. This reversal will not and cannot occur in any government agency, embedded as it is among the pernicious influences of politics, unions and tradition of decades of failure having no consequences. Any application of the social sciences under government control is irredeemable in terms of effectiveness.
In Conclusion
Psychology specifically, and the social sciences in general, can make many things better, but effective programs are seldom used. These programs always represent a trade-off which is usually politically impossible. The Elites, including the media, politicians and union leaders almost always get things wrong and their advice is to be avoided. Their ability to do, or even predict, important things is abysmal because facts have never been influenced by the arrogance that comes with status on the INTEND-IS side.
There is a strong belief by many people that they are uniquely capable of directing the affairs of others and that the affairs of others are in desperate need of directing.
The usefulness of government is based on two conceits. The first is that guidance is necessary and the second that this guidance is best provided by those who have no responsibility. In most cases guidance is unnecessary and in no cases is it best provided by those with no responsibility. The Divine Right of Kings meant that the King had a Divine Right to Rule, but to ameliorate this conceit, the King was a conduit of Divine Guidance. The elite believe they have a Divine Right to Rule, but their guidance comes from their own superior intellect and compassion in spite of continual evidence to the contrary.
Now you know.
Cheerio and ttfn,
Grant Coulson
Cui Bono–Cherchez les Contingencies
