from the book: Shadow Dancing on the Grave of Hope:
"Since government services are paid for through the compulsion of taxes, they have no market price. But without market prices, we have no way of knowing the importance that free people would place on those services versus other things they want." John Stossel
"Hegel remarks somewhere that all great, world-historical facts and personages occur, as it were, twice. He has forgotten to add: the first time as tragedy, the second as farce.” Karl Marx. Don’t be put off by a Marx quotation, it’s one of the few wise things he said. Marx was, of course, one of those who, Thomas Sowell points out, believed himself to be one of "The Anointed", someone who reckons himself as one of the few uniquely suited to direct the affairs of others. Smith, on the other hand, recognized that people do better directing their own affairs.
What most people think they know about the social sciences comes from entertainment masquerading as information or from government-decreed experts masquerading as experts. We hear about multiple personalities, anti-drug programs, recovered memories, dramatic interventions, and cures of the month without cease. Most of this valueless junk is disseminated by relentless self-promoters, government workers who have no obligation to be effective, entertainment pretending to be reality, or worse, by all three together.
Well over three decades ago, N. H. Azrin embarked on a series of experimental investigations into programs designed to ease certain kinds of undesirable conditions. "In each of these areas, numerous books had been written as to how to cure the problem, many precise correlational studies had revealed population characteristics associated with the problem, many theoretical analyses and explanations had been offered, analog experiments with animals or nonpatients had been conducted, illustrative cases studies of one or two cases had been described, and typically, controversy existed as to which analysis of the problem was more valid. Conspicuously absent, or near absent, for each problem were experiments that critically evaluated the proposed treatment….Our ability to talk about, and explain, problems greatly exceeded our ability to show we could cure them. In selecting a problem to study, one hardly need fear that a solution already existed." (bold italics not in original). Azrin produced two of the exemplar programs in this book by developing techniques which work much better than the ones most used then, and, not surprisingly, now. The sad and pathetic reality is that, although the example programs used in the present book were chosen from among thousands because of their effectiveness, and are thereby standouts, the vast majority of practitioners, even in the narrow specialties concerned, are not even aware of these programs. For example, a president of the National Council of Teachers of Mathematics, an association of public educators, by her own admission, had not even heard of the largest systematic experiment in education, Project Follow Through. The Law of Contingencies would predict that we should be astounded when public employees show knowledge, not when they show ignorance, because when knowledge is not required, it is rarely acquired.
Contingencies, the rules describing the connections among circumstances, behavior and consequences, determine, to a large extent, what behavior occurs when. This book will examine how contingencies control the behavior of practitioners of the social sciences. A behavioral contingency is the rule about what consequences follow what behavior under what circumstances. For example, the circumstances under which pay is delivered to a teacher is a strong determinant of the teacher’s classroom activity. Contingencies in private business govern the exchange of goods and\or services for money. To paraphrase and Anglicize Alexandre Dumas, we will "cherchez les contingencies" and look for the payoffs for activities of practitioners in the social sciences. There are surprises galore, a few good, most not, waiting. The basic assumption of this book is that contingencies in the social sciences have two important effects. The first is that they hold the key to learning and behavior change in the customers of the social sciences. The second is that contingencies, paradoxically, explain why effective techniques are seldom used by the practitioners of the social sciences and, consequently, why the social sciences are unsuccessful in almost all of their applications.
In criminal investigations, the first question asked is "cui bono?"—who benefits? In human affairs in general, one should always ask, "Who benefits and how?" In the romantic rhetoric of the social sciences, the benefit is supposed to accrue to the recipient and the provider works for altruistic reasons–"I just like to help people." The contingencies in most social science applications are the opposite of those required by success. The actions of those in the social sciences cannot be understood without knowing the contingencies influencing these actions. Equally important will be an analysis of the absence of contingencies supporting productive outcomes.
"…, it (a contingency analysis) replaces the traditional practice of blaming the actors for the action. Calling… officials dishonest, and the politicians corrupt offers no direction for future action. Unless the behavior of these individuals is correctly analyzed and different contingencies are arranged, the problems will recur repeatedly.” (emphasis added) (Pennypacker, 1992, 1245). Pennypacker, in the same article, predicted the demise of General Motors. The reasons that problems recur is that the contingencies remain the same. Contingencies provide the thread which guides us through the labyrinth of human behavior in general and social sciences programs in particular.
N.HAzrin. (1977) A strategy for applied research: Learning based but outcome oriented. American Psychologist , 32(2), 140-149.
Pennypacker, H. S. (1992): "Is Behavior Analysis Undergoing Selection by Consequences?" American Psychologist vol. 47. 1491 –1498
Cheerio and ttfn,
Grant Coulson
